For textile enterprises, at the end of each year, things to consider will become more than usual: suppliers' payment needs to be delivered, receivables need to be recovered, foreign exchange needs to be settled, workers need to be issued at the end of the year, warehouse raw materials need to be prepared...
At this time, the impact of external environmental factors on textile enterprises will also have a multiplier effect, and recently, external factors such as freight and crude oil have changed to a greater extent.
Sea freight rose for the second time in a row
The Shanghai Export Freight Index (SCFI) rose for two weeks in a row, with the latest index rising 1.01% to 2,256.46 points on the 6th. Although the main routes such as the European line, the United States West line, the United States East line showed a small decline, the decline is within $100, but the Persian Gulf (Dubai) and South America (Santos) and other secondary routes showed an upward trend, up by $112 and $365, respectively.
According to the freight forwarding industry, affected by the tariff policy of US President-elect Trump, some cargo owners choose to rush the goods to Mexico in early January and then enter the United States by land transport to avoid potential tariff risks. In addition, European routes successfully raised prices around December 1 and have largely maintained these increases this week.
In addition, with January 15 next year, the United States East Terminal labor negotiations into the automation issue deadlock, there is a risk of a second strike. Industry insiders believe that some shippers may gradually transfer their goods to the western United States. At the same time, due to the advance of the Lunar New Year to the end of January, the volume of American goods is expected to rise week by week. Market rumors say that shipping companies plan to raise European and American freight rates on December 15, and the increase is not small.
The continuous rise in shipping prices corresponds to the advance of some foreign trade orders next year, which may prompt the emergence of the year-end order market.
There is a risk of excess crude oil
After many days of delay, the "Opec +" meeting made the latest decision on December 5 to extend the oil production increase plan again to April next year.
On December 5, "Opec +" had finalized an agreement to once again postpone a series of production increases. The meeting decided to maintain oil production at the current level in the first quarter of next year, and gradually lift oil production cuts after the first quarter of next year until September 2026. That's a full year behind schedule.
Previously, the International Energy Agency said that even if Opec + does not add a single barrel of oil, the global market will face a surplus by 2025. Supply from producers such as the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana will grow by 1.5 million BPD this year and next."
The Citi analysis report predicts that even if the "Opec +" cancels the supply increase, crude oil prices will move toward $60 per barrel in 2025, and if the group continues to increase production, prices may fall further. Jpmorgan Chase believes that even if Opec + extends production cuts, there will still be a "large" surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day in the global oil market next year, and it expects the price of Brent crude oil to be at $73 per barrel in 2025, close to the current level, and the price will fall below $60 per barrel by 2026.
The market continues to be bearish on crude oil, to a certain extent will affect the downstream polyester industry chain, in the case of weaving enterprises on the future price of polyester filament bearish, may increase the wait-and-see mood of enterprises at the end of the year.
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What is the impact of external environmental factors on textile enterprises?
